South American Potassium Fertilizer CDD Consultant

As the U.S. Government's development finance agency, the United States International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) mobilizes U.S. private capital to help solve critical development challenges while advancing U.S. foreign policy interests. DFC works with the U.S. private sector to help gain footholds in emerging markets, catalyzing revenues, jobs, and growth opportunities at home and abroad. DFC achieves its mission by providing investors with financing, loan guarantees, political risk insurance, support for private equity investment funds, and direct equity investments.

DFC’s Office of Health and Agribusiness (OHA) requires a commercial consultant that is a subject matter expert on the fertilizer industry to assess: i) the global fertilizer supply chain dynamics, ii) key production countries and their production cost per ton, iii) the South America market (focus on big countries such as Brazil and Argentina), and iv) the commercial viability of a potash project selling to Brazil.

The firm should prepare two quotes. The first quote is for a report focused exclusively on the potassium fertilizer market. The second quote is for a report with an expanded scope which includes nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers. The quotes should include the time estimate as well as cost. The consultant’s report should address the following topics:

• Overview of the potassium fertilizer supply chain globally and in South America
  • Key production countries or region (i.e, China, Russia, Canada, and Middle East)
  • Capacity and output
  • Export destinations
  • Cost curve positioning / operating cost per ton
  • Key challenges and constraints, including prices at which producers will stop producing
  • Competitive advantages
  • Supply and demand gap, including forecasts

• Historical and forecast potash price
  • Muriate of Potash (MOP) granular / standard
  • Cost and Freight (CFR) Brazil, Free on Board (FOB), etc
  • Volatility drivers and forward curves (2026 – 2030)
  • Import-parity pricing for Brazilian buyers

• Logistics and shipping cost benchmarking
  • Ocean freight, port handling, and inland transport costs to South America from:
    • Canada
    • Russia / Belarus (Baltic / Black Sea)
    • Middle east (Jordan / Israel / Red Sea)
    • China
  • Comparative delivered-cost analysis to key Brazilian demand centers (e.g., Mato Grosso, Parana)

• Commercial viability for potash projects in Argentina selling to Brazil and potentially the U.S.
  • Delivered cost competitiveness vs. imports, vs new regional supply
  • Volume capture potential
  • Margin analysis (realized price net of logistics and opex)
  • New project pipeline, existing projects in South America and competitive threat
    • Global and South American and Africa developments (status, capacity, timelines, capex)
    • Specific focus on Brazil or South America
    • Impact on regional pricing and import substitution
  • Average Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) margins for potash fertilizer mining projects

• For the second quote, replicate the above for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers

REQUIREMENTS  

The contractor shall have the requisite expertise to consult on matters related to the items outlined in the SOW or be able to subcontract to a firm that has extensive experience in the global and South America fertilizer markets. Requisite experience equates to 10+ years of consultancy experience in the broader fertilizer sector. Such experience can be firm or employee experience.

The contractor shall have the ability to obtain and maintain a Public Trust clearance or higher and pass a DFC background investigation.