Broad Agency Announcement (BAA): Cost Estimating Modeling Data, Analytics Research (CEMDAR)

Broad Agency Announcement (BAA)

Closed Two-Step BAA: SAF/FM Cost Estimating Modeling Data Analytics Research (CEMDAR)

The Two-Step Process reduces acquisition resources for both the Government and industry. It may be considered when a large number of proposals are anticipated or to determine if further Government interest is warranted. If further interest is not warranted, industry saves unnecessary bid and proposal costs and the Government saves review time.

Broad Agency Announcement Number

FA7014-26-S-CS02

Announcement Title

SAF/FM Cost Estimating Modeling Data Analytics Research (CEMDAR)

Federal Agency Name

Secretary of the Air Force Financial Management (SAF/FM)

Announcement Type & Acquisition Set-Aside

Initial Announcement | 100% Small Business Set-Aside

NAICS Code & Size Standard

541745 (Small Business Size Standard: 1,000 employees)

Estimated Program Ceiling

$24,000,000 (Anticipated Awards: 1 single award)

White Paper Submission Deadline

October 19, 2026, 1300 hrs Eastern Time

Questions Due 

October 1, 2026, 1300 hrs Eastern Time

1. Overview Information & Two-Step Solicitation Structure

SAF/FM is soliciting white papers on the research effort described herein. White papers must be addressed to the Contracting Points of Contact (POCs). This solicitation is a Total Small Business Set-Aside under NAICS Code 541745. White papers and resultant proposals submitted shall strictly comply with this announcement. There will be no separate formal solicitation issued regarding this requirement. This BAA will be republished at yearly intervals for administrative updates and ease of reference.

1.1 Two-Step Acquisition Sequence

• Step 1 — White Paper Due Date & Submission: White papers may be electronically submitted upon issuance of this BAA until October 19, 2026, 1300 hrs Eastern Time. Only white papers are accepted at this stage. Submissions must be delivered electronically to AFDW/PK at eric.moss.3@us.af.mil and joseph.spear.1@us.af.mil.
• Step 2 — Formal Proposal Due Date & Time: Formal technical and cost proposals will be requested solely from offerors whose submitted white papers are evaluated as successfully meeting the operational and research needs of the Air Force.
• Late Receipt Provisions: White paper and proposal receipts after the specified cutoff date and time shall be governed strictly by the provisions of FAR 52.215-1(c)(3).

1.2 Instrument Types and Contracting Guidance

The Air Force reserves the right to award the contractual instrument best suited to the nature of the research proposed. Accordingly, the Government may award any appropriate contract type under the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR), Other Transaction (OT) for Prototype authority, Grant, Cooperative Agreement, OT for Research, or an applicable technology transfer mechanism. Awards under this BAA are generally anticipated to be cost-reimbursement. Offerors are specifically advised that cost-reimbursement contracts require an accounting system determined adequate by the Government for tracking allocable contract costs.

1.3 Communications & Contracting Points of Contact

Dialogue between prospective offerors and Government representatives is strongly encouraged prior to proposal submission. Technical discussions shall not constitute a commitment by the Government to fund or award any proposed effort. Only warranted Contracting Officers possess the legal authority to commit the Government. Inquiries regarding this solicitation should be directed to the Contracting POCs:

• Primary Contracting Officer: Eric Moss — eric.moss.3@us.af.mil
• Alternate Contracting Officer: Joseph Spear — joseph.spear.1@us.af.mil

2. Section I — Program Description & Strategic Objectives

The Department of the Air Force (DAF) has identified critical operational gaps in the enterprise databases, analytical methods, and predictive tools regularly employed for weapon system cost estimating and analysis. DAF is actively committed to modernizing the efficiency, fidelity, and throughput of its cost estimating capabilities. This requirement invests in strengthening, accelerating, and elevating cost data and analytic capabilities using modern data science and cloud engineering technologies to enable faster, higher-quality, and higher-volume analytic decision support across the DAF cost community.

The CEMDAR research initiative executes four fundamental architectural shifts across enterprise cost operations:

• Platform Modernization: Transitioning from legacy desktop-based analytical tools to secure enterprise cloud platforms (e.g., DAF Data Fabric, VAULT, Envision).
• Relational Data Integration: Moving from isolated, commodity-specific datasets to integrated, relational architectures linking programmatic, technical, cost, and schedule parameters.
• Pipeline Automation: Replacing static spreadsheets and recurring manual reporting with dynamic, automated data engineering pipelines.
• Scalable Predictive Modeling: Advancing from low-volume static cost modeling to highly scalable data collection, curation, machine learning, and empirical analytics.

2.1 Strategic Research Objectives

1. Elevating Data Fidelity: Improving the verifiable quality, authenticity, granularity, and volume of empirical data collected and accessible to DAF cost analysts.
2. Relational Enterprise Databases: Engineering centralized, enterprise-level relational cost, schedule, and technical databases adhering to rigorous data science principles and MIL-STD-881 standards.
3. Analytical Workflow Optimization: Constructing capabilities and streamlined workflows that empower analysts to rapidly synthesize large-scale multi-commodity datasets.
4. Predictive Modeling & Decision Support: Establishing authoritative enterprise datasets and generating dynamic Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs), Schedule Estimating Relationships (SERs), Technical Estimating Relationships (TERs), benchmark metrics, interactive dashboards, and cloud-native cost models.

The overarching vision is not only to elevate the timeliness and accuracy of program Life-Cycle Cost Estimates (LCCEs) for budgeting, programming, and acquisition milestone decisions, but also to build an agile capability for rapid high-level force design, alternative architecture trades, and component-level engineering trade-off evaluations.

3. Section II — Technical Description & Core Competencies

The Department of the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (AFCAA) is soliciting white papers (and subsequently formal technical and cost proposals from qualified respondents) addressing innovative synchronization of research related to technical, cost and schedule for DoW/DAF programs across the following five Core Competencies. Submitted white papers must move beyond generic capability statements and clearly articulate the offeror's specific technical approach, proposed system architectures and analytical methodologies. Offerors should include concrete examples of relevant past work, demonstrating proven experience in designing data pipelines, executing predictive cost modeling, and conducting targeted cost specific research within defense or similarly regulated enterprise environments.

To ensure holistic technical execution, white papers must also address the following staffing and expertise qualifications:

• Key Personnel Competencies & Experience: Offerors must explicitly summarize the core technical competencies, relevant project experience, and security clearance/access readiness of proposed Key Personnel—specifically the Contractor Program Manager (PM), the Chief Cost Data Scientist (governing Task 2 Level 1 architectural decisions and CADOM pipelines), and any designated Technical / Data Science Task Leads—substantiating the leadership team's qualification to direct contract activities from Day 1.

• On-Demand Cost & Commodity Subject Matter Experts (SMEs): Offerors must demonstrate an established, agile capability to deploy specialized Cost and Technical Domain SMEs on an as-required basis. These experts must possess deep commodity and engineering expertise to support targeted cost studies, schedule analyses, and novel data pipeline mapping across diverse defense domains—including Aircraft, Space and Launch Systems, Missiles and Munitions, C4ISR, Cyber and Software Systems, and Operations and Support (O&S) Sustainment.

3.1 Core Competency 1: Enterprise Data Governance, Access, and Research Lifecycle Planning (envisioned PWS Tasks 1 & 2)

• Task 1 — Data Access Permissions, Proprietary Information Protection, and OCI Governance: Establishes the administrative, legal, and multi-tier security foundation required to ingest proprietary defense data. Offerors must structure and manage Non-Disclosure Agreements (NDAs) across AFCAA, OSD CAPE (for the Cost Assessment Data Enterprise [CADE] repository), Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), and prime/subcontractor tiers. Because weapon system cost repositories contain business-sensitive Proprietary Information (PROPIN), tasks require rigorous OEM engagement protocols, proactive OCI screening, and monitoring to eliminate conflicts resulting from corporate reorganizations or contractor commercial affiliations.

• Task 2 — Integrated Research Planning, POA&M Execution, and Agile Governance:
  This area establishes a centralized, contractor-maintained Plan of Action and Milestones (POA&M) serving as the operational roadmap governing all contract activities. The integrated POA&M must establish element-level execution schedules, critical path milestones, risk mitigation triggers, and formal go/no-go evaluation gates integrating all technical efforts: foundational data governance and ingestion, automated Medallion pipeline curation (Task 3), empirical studies and predictive model building (Task 4), acquisition database modernization (Task 5), and surge research directives.

To ensure seamless technical integration without compromising Government oversight, offerors must establish a disciplined governance framework that strictly delineates contractor operational management from inherently governmental authority:

• Contractor Operational Governance: Led by the Chief Cost Data Scientist and Contractor PM, the contractor manages internal agile execution, sprint velocity, data quality gates, and Level 1 Architectural Decisions (internal pipeline scripting, routine algorithms, and code refactoring). The contractor must maintain an Integration and Dependency Matrix linking Task 4 analytical use cases directly to underlying Task 3 data pipelines.

• Government Technical Oversight: The Government retains all approval and baseline acceptance authority. The AFCAA Technical Lead / COR approves Level 2 Decisions (changes to enterprise data schemas, cloud infrastructure, or CADOM standards), while Level 3 Decisions (cross-agency data sharing and multi-service standards) require stakeholder consensus (AFCAA, OSD CAPE, and Service Cost Centers).

3.2 Core Competency 2: Automated Data Pipeline Engineering & Enterprise Architecture (envisioned PWS Task 3)

• Cost Analysis Data Operating Model (CADOM) & Medallion Pipeline Architecture: Focuses on architecting, testing, and operationalizing scalable ETL/ELT pipelines unifying disparate programmatic, technical, cost, and schedule data streams into an enterprise CADOM schema. Utilizing modern technologies (Apache Spark, Databricks, Python, SQL, cloud data warehouses), pipelines implement a multi-stage medallion architecture: Bronze (raw ingestion), Silver (cleansed, schema-validated, normalized records), and Gold (curated, high-performance analytical views). Work mandates automated quality gates, comprehensive error-handling and telemetry logging, and full audit lineage tracing Gold metrics back to source records. Target feeds include Cost and Software Data Reporting (CSDR/FlexFile), Selected Acquisition Reports (SAR/MSAR), Earned Value Management (EVM/IPMDAR), Air Force Total Ownership Cost (AFTOC), and defense budget exhibits.

• Enterprise Metadata Schema, Data Lineage, and Catalog Services: Maintains and enriches centralized metadata models, embedding automated tagging routines during ingestion to tag program identifiers, commodity domains, and MIL-STD-881 Work Breakdown Structures (WBS). Develops searchable data catalog services (e.g., Unity Catalog, Foundry), implements Data Fidelity Scorecards measuring authenticity and normalization readiness, and enforces granular role-based access control (RBAC) and attribute-based access control (ABAC) across proprietary and classified boundaries.

• Enterprise Analytical Applications & AI/ML Data Infrastructure: Builds cross-cutting analytic applications and ML pipelines, such as cross-commodity benchmarking engines, automated NLP-driven WBS mapping from historical CSDR submissions, and Silver-layer anomaly detection routines. Manages version-controlled infrastructure-as-code and reproducible deployment scripts inside government-controlled Git repositories.

3.3 Core Competency 3: Data-Driven Analytics, Predictive Modeling, and Application Deployment (envisioned PWS Task 4)

This technical area encompasses research, predictive modeling, and application deployment executed through approved subtasks in the POA&M. Depending on operational objectives, subtasks will combine data analysis, dynamic model development, custom tool engineering, and targeted empirical studies:

• Dynamic Analysis, Predictive Modeling & Empirical Studies: Applies regression, econometrics, machine learning, and Bayesian methods to develop dynamic models, empirical CERs, SERs, TERs, and cost growth benchmarks. Research covers core weapon system commodities—Aircraft (Fixed/Rotary/Unmanned), Space & Launch, Missiles, Cyber/Software, and Operations & Support (O&S) sustainment. Focus areas include, for example, expenditure time-phasing, flight test benchmarks, commercial space cost adjustments, agile software metrics, and AI-generated code productivity/defects.

• Custom Analytical Applications & CADOM Deployment: Designs, packages, and deploys user-facing tools, calculation workbooks, and interactive dashboards connected directly to CADOM pipelines. Automates repetitive estimating workflows (e.g., inflation/escalation, price normalization, trade-off analysis). In alignment with the Integration and Dependency Matrix, models and containerized applications must comply with CADOM standards and include reproducible code and technical documentation.

3.4 Core Competency 4: Specialized Acquisition Databases and Statutory Cost Reporting Administration (envisioned PWS Task 5)

• Task 5 (Option CLIN) — AFCAA Contracts Database (KDB) Modernization and Analysis: Modernizes and hosts the enterprise AFCAA Contracts Database within cloud platforms (e.g., VAULT). Fuses procurement data from SAM.gov, FPDS, EDA, and USA Spending with internal metadata models (CSDR, SAR, EVM). Constructs BI pipelines, refines contract growth classification buckets, conducts Engineering Change Order (ECO) analyses to isolate cost drivers, issues quarterly database releases to CADE users, and delivers hybrid user training.

3.5 Core Competency 5: Mission Augmentation and Surge Analytical Capabilities (envisioned PWS Task 6)

• Task 6 (Option CLIN) — RDT&E Surge Research and Rapid Prototyping Support: Pre-negotiated surge mechanism to rapidly deploy specialized cost estimators, data scientists, machine learning engineers, and technical SMEs for high-priority emergent research, algorithm development, and novel methodology prototyping requiring RDT&E funding.

4. Section III — Contractual, Security, and Administrative Requirements

Within Scope Modifications: Due to the inherent uncertainty of research and development efforts, awards resulting from this announcement may be modified during performance to execute within-scope adjustments, including modifications to increase contract ceiling.

4.1 Period of Performance and Deliverable Schedule

The anticipated period of performance spans 12 to 60 months for the technical effort, tailored to individual award determinations. Hardware and specialized software items shall be determined per contract award.

Deliverable Category

Contractual Requirement

Governing Standard / Delivery Frequency

Period of Performance

12 to 60 months total duration

Tailored to contract award and CLIN structure

Data Items (CDRLs)

Research reports, POA&Ms, schemas

Specified in resultant Contract Work Statement

Software / Codebase

Data pipelines, containerized tools

Delivered to government repositories; Open/Gov Rights

Quarterly Releases

AFCAA KDB and CADOM deployments

Quarterly release cycles into VAULT/CADE environments

4.2 Security, OPSEC, and Export Control Compliance

• Facility & Personnel Clearance: Program classification requirements span up to and including Top Secret (refer to RFP DD Form 254). Offerors must maintain an active Facility Clearance and ensure current Cognizant Security Office records are registered with DCSA (www.dcsa.mil). All proposed Key Personnel must hold and maintain an active SECRET security clearance at contract award, and offerors must demonstrate that they have immediate access to personnel that possess the access capability to utilize TOP SECRET / SCI clearances and facilities as required for classified studies and task directives. All non-key contractor and subcontractor personnel assigned to this contract must possess, at a minimum, a favorably completed and adjudicated Tier 2 (T2) background investigation (or higher) on Day 1 of contract performance to support Moderate-Risk Public Trust (MRPT) and Common Access Card (CAC) / system access requirements. ). TS/SCI work is anticipated to be a small fraction of the overall work in year 1 but could vary each year as requirements evolve.

• Operations Security (OPSEC): Contractors and subcontractors must implement Industrial Security, Information Security, Personnel Security, and OPSEC measures to protect critical program data from adversary exploitation and export breaches.

• Export Control & ITAR: Technical information generated or utilized may be subject to ITAR (22 CFR 120-131) and EAR (15 CFR 710-774). Where applicable, a Certified DD Form 2345 (Militarily Critical Technical Data Agreement) must accompany formal proposals. DFARS 252.225-7048 applies to all resulting awards.

• Contractor Performance Assessment (CPARS): Interim annual evaluations and a final evaluation will be conducted. Contractors are provided 14 calendar days to review and submit rebuttals before final determinations by the authority one level above the Contracting Officer.

4.3 Logistics, Base Support, and Intellectual Property Rights

Government-Furnished Property (GFP) / Equipment (GFE): In accordance with Section VI of the PWS, the Government will furnish standard encrypted laptops, required application software licenses, and cloud platform tenant environments (e.g., DAF VAULT / Data Fabric) for authorized contractor personnel performing work under resulting awards. Provisioning will occur within 10–15 business days following security badge issuance. No additional GFP/GFE is anticipated; any extra equipment requested in an offeror's proposal must be pre-approved by the Contracting Officer.  Primary contract performance will occur at contractor facilities. However, the Government will provide on-site base access, workspace, and local network connectivity for contractor personnel designated to work on-site or attend recurring program reviews at government locations in the National Capital Region (NCR), and other AFCAA Operating locations as necessary.

4.4 Data Rights and Commercial Software Licensing

The Government desires the following data rights determinations:

• Noncommercial Technical Data: Unlimited Rights.
• Noncommercial Computer Software (NCS) & Documentation: Unlimited Rights.
• Commercial Computer Software: Customary Commercial License consistent with Federal procurement statutes.

Final data rights will be determined during contract negotiations in accordance with RFO and R-DFARs.

Third-party commercial and noncommercial software not reasonably identifiable at proposal submission must be formally approved by the Contracting Officer or Contracting Officer’s Representative (COR) prior to incorporation. Software licenses transferred to the Government must not disclaim all warranties via ‘as is’ provisions, must permit use across Air Force and support contractor facilities, and must allow code embedding/derivative works. Licensors must agree to incorporate standard federal preemption terms nullifying any provisions inconsistent with Federal law.

5. Section IV — Proposal Preparation and Evaluation Review

This solicitation executes a Two-Step selection process. White papers and proposals must adhere strictly to the guidelines outlined below. The Government reserves the right to review white papers and fund some, all, or none of the proposals received.

ONLY WHITE PAPERS ARE BEING SOLICIATED AT THIS TIME.

5.1 Eligibility Information

Eligible Offeror: This is a 100% Small Business Set-aside. 

Cost Sharing or Matching: Cost Sharing is not required.

Government Agencies: If a Government agency is interested in performing work, contact the Contracting Officer identified in the BAA. If those discussions result in a mutual interest to pursue your agency's participation, the effort will be pursued independent of this announcement.

Other:

Foreign Participation: SAF/FM is authorized to exclude all foreign participation at the prime contractor level for the subject procurement. Foreign participation will be addressed for each white paper that have the potential to best meet the Air Force’s needs based on the white paper evaluation information in Section V.

Notice to Foreign-Owned Firms: Such firms are asked to immediately notify the Contracting Officer before deciding to respond to this announcement. Foreign contractors should be aware that restrictions might apply which could preclude their participation in this acquisition.

There are no limits on the number of white papers/proposals an offeror may submit.

You may be ineligible for award if all requirements of this solicitation are not met on the white paper (and later proposal) due date as identified above.

5.2 Step 1: White Paper Submission Format

White papers must be structured into four distinct, concise sections. Total of all sections combined should be no more than 30 pages:

Offerors must format white paper submissions in accordance with the standard guidelines below. Requirements are kept intentionally streamlined to minimize proposal preparation burden while ensuring equitable technical evaluation.

1. Page Format & Margins: All pages must be formatted for standard 8.5" x 11" paper with a minimum of one-inch (1.0") margins on all four borders. Page orientation must be portrait.
2. Typography & Line Spacing: Narrative text must be single-spaced using Times New Roman (minimum 12-point), Arial (minimum 10-point), or Calibri (minimum 11-point). Text within tables, figures, charts, and diagrams may be reduced to a minimum of 8-point font, provided all content remains legible at 100% zoom.
3. Electronic File Formats: White papers must be submitted electronically via email as a single, searchable Adobe Portable Document Format (pdf) file. The Cost Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) may also include an optional, unlocked Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) workbook showing active formulas and calculations. Do not submit .zip compressed archives or password-protected files.
4. Header/Footer Information: Headers and footers may fall within margin boundaries and must include the BAA number (FA7014-26-S-CS02), company name, CAGE code, and sequential page numbering ("Page X of Y").
5. Page Limitations: Pages shall be numbered starting with the cover page being Page 1, and the last page being no greater than Page 30.  The Government may remove and not evaluate any pages that exceed the established limitations.

• Section A — Administrative & Corporate Metadata: BAA Number, Title of Research Effort, Company Name, Business Size, CAGE code, DUNS/UEI number, and Company Technical & Contracting POCs (with direct telephone numbers and email addresses).

• Section B — Technical Approach & Capability Summary:  Statement of task objectives; detailed technical methodology demonstrating alignment with Core Competencies 1 through 5; concrete examples of past work demonstrating automated pipeline engineering and predictive cost modeling; and a concise staffing summary detailing:
• The qualifications, core competencies, relevant experience, and clearance status of proposed Key Personnel; and

The offeror's established approach for providing on-demand Cost and Commodity Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) across weapon system domains as task assignments require.

• Section C — Cost & Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM): Comprehensive ROM cost estimate reflecting labor, data infrastructure, and travel necessary to execute the proposed research.
• Section D — Associate Contractor Agreements (ACAs): Identification of anticipated ACA frameworks required to exchange proprietary technical data, software code, and research assets among multiple defense contractors.

5.3 Step 1: White Paper Review Criteria

MANDATORY EVALUATION GATE: Only white papers submitted by respondents possessing an active and verifiable Facility Security Clearance (FCL) at the TOP SECRET level (issued and recorded in the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency [DCSA] National Industrial Security System [NISS] at the time of white paper submission will be reviewed by the Government. Submissions lacking verification of an active Top Secret FCL at the time of submission will be rejected without consideration.

Teaming Arrangements and Joint Ventures: In any contractor teaming arrangement or Joint Venture (JV), the Prime Contractor must independently hold an active Secret FCL at submission. Cleared entities within the proposed teaming arrangement possessing the requisite FCL must perform at least fifty percent (50%) of the direct labor/technical effort. A cleared subcontractor may not on its own fulfill this requirement on behalf of an uncleared prime contractor.

Day-1 Vetting Readiness Attestation: Offerors must certify in Section A of their white paper that:

1. All proposed Key Personnel hold active SECRET security clearances at contract award;
2. All labor planned for Day-1 contract performance possesses, at a minimum, a favorably completed and adjudicated Tier 2 (T2) background investigation (or higher); and
3. The offeror possesses verified access capability to deploy appropriately cleared TOP SECRET / SCI analysts as required for classified projects and studies (e.g., representative efforts identified in PWS Appendix A or subsequent POA&M task directives).

• Technical Relevance: Is the proposed technical approach rigorously consistent with the research domains and technologies listed in this BAA?
• Government Interest: Does the proposed technical methodology address urgent analytical gaps and provide high-value decision support to SAF/FM and AFCAA?
• Fiscal Viability: Is appropriate research and operational funding available to support the proposed scope and period of performance?

5.4 Step 2: Full Proposal Preparation & Evaluation

Offerors receiving favorable white paper evaluations will receive an official Request for Proposal (RFP) detailing Step 2 technical and cost submission instructions, review criteria, and formal deliverable requirements. Offerors will be notified regarding recommendation for full proposal submission on or about 30 calendar days following white paper receipt.

5.5 Statutory and Administrative Disclosures

• Acquisition of Commercial Items: The Government is not utilizing FAR Part 12 policies for this solicitation. Interested firms may submit commercial capability statements within 15 calendar days of notice issuance.
• Support Contractor Participation: Government employees will conduct all evaluations. Commercial contractor personnel providing administrative support to AFDW/PK are bound by non-disclosure agreements protecting proprietary data.
• Debriefing & Feedback Sessions: Offerors may request a debriefing session consistent with governing BAA and FAR acquisition procedures.
• Responsibility Matters (FAR 52.209-9): Applies to awards exceeding $600,000 where affirmative responsibility matters are checked under FAR 52.209-7.
• Proposal Adequacy Checklist: Pursuant to DFARS 215.408, proposals requiring certified cost or pricing data must include the completed DFARS 252.215-7009 Proposal Adequacy Checklist.